The regulator assessed the risks against the backdrop of growing global debt.
Analysts at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation have admitted another global financial crisis, which could occur in 2023 and can be compared in magnitude to what the world experienced in 2008.
According to experts, such a development of events can occur due to the global debt accumulated by states and large corporations.
As noted in the draft guidelines for the country's monetary policy through 2024, released by the Central Bank, debt has increased amid the pandemic.
So, as the Institute of International Finance found out, global debt increased by $ 24 trillion last year, in addition, its ratio to GDP global reached 355%. If we compare these indicators with 2008, then the ratio of GDP to debt was lower.
Central Bank experts assume that the US authorities, along with other countries, will take the route of tightening monetary policy and also be cut short in the event of a temporary pandemic stimulating measures in the economy.
In addition, investors will begin to shed risky stocks, which could cause markets where bubbles are already seen to fall. The climax of the crisis will be set by the drop in oil prices to $ 40 a barrel.
As a result, in two years the economy of the Russian Federation will experience a decline of 1.4-2.4%, inflation will rise and the Central Bank will have to resort to to a hard policy.
The recovery, analysts forecast, will take at least two to three quarters, but by 2024 growth will start at 3-4%.
As Topnews previously wrote, the Central Bank has already announced that another financial crisis is inevitable.
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